by Asim Jalis
This analysis is based on voter data from CNN. Here is the URL:
Link to http://www.cnn.com.
My impression during the door-to-door interviewing was that
people who supported Bush considered terrorism as the most
Looking at the issues section, the thing to note is the
percentage who found an issue important times the percentage of
this segment that voted for Bush. This gives the percentage of
the sample that voted for Bush because of a specific issue.
Here are the numbers I got:
Imp Bush Kerry I*B I*K
Tax 5% 57% 43% 2.9% 2.2% Taxes
Edu 4% 26% 73% 1.0% 2.9% Education
Irq 15% 26% 73% 3.9% 11.0% Iraq
Ter 19% 86% 14% 16.3% 2.7% Terrorism
Ecn 20% 18% 80% 3.6% 16.0% Economy/Jobs
Mor 22% 80% 18% 17.6% 4.0% MoralValues
Hlt 8% 23% 77% 1.8% 6.2% HealthCare
Tot 93% 47% 45% Totals
Bush's biggest segment (17.6%) is MoralValues. However, the
Terrorism segment (16.3%) is also quite big. Both of these are
bigger than the largest segment that Kerry has, which is
Economy/Jobs (16.0%). Kerry's second largest segment is Iraq
So Bush had two largest segments (MoralValues and Terrorism),
while Kerry had the third and fourth largest.
It's also interesting that Iraq actually hurt the Republicans,
just like in 1992. The big difference this time is Terrorism
which helped significantly.