Friday, January 14, 2005

Analysis of US Presidential Election Data

by Asim Jalis

This analysis is based on voter data from CNN. Here is the URL: Link to My impression during the door-to-door interviewing was that people who supported Bush considered terrorism as the most important issue. Looking at the issues section, the thing to note is the percentage who found an issue important times the percentage of this segment that voted for Bush. This gives the percentage of the sample that voted for Bush because of a specific issue. Here are the numbers I got: Imp Bush Kerry I*B I*K Tax 5% 57% 43% 2.9% 2.2% Taxes Edu 4% 26% 73% 1.0% 2.9% Education Irq 15% 26% 73% 3.9% 11.0% Iraq Ter 19% 86% 14% 16.3% 2.7% Terrorism Ecn 20% 18% 80% 3.6% 16.0% Economy/Jobs Mor 22% 80% 18% 17.6% 4.0% MoralValues Hlt 8% 23% 77% 1.8% 6.2% HealthCare Tot 93% 47% 45% Totals Bush's biggest segment (17.6%) is MoralValues. However, the Terrorism segment (16.3%) is also quite big. Both of these are bigger than the largest segment that Kerry has, which is Economy/Jobs (16.0%). Kerry's second largest segment is Iraq (11%). So Bush had two largest segments (MoralValues and Terrorism), while Kerry had the third and fourth largest. It's also interesting that Iraq actually hurt the Republicans, just like in 1992. The big difference this time is Terrorism which helped significantly.